Anthropic is reported to be considering an IPO as early as 2026. This market resolves to the market cap of Anthropic at its listing price. There are already many of these markets but most tended to have buckets like $1.3-2.1T and $800B-$1.6 T. Those buckets are sitting upwards of 50%, so I made this market to get better data.
(Note that on the day of the IPO the stock may close at a higher or lower price depending on how the market reacts. But we will use the original listing price for the purposes of this question.)
See also:
- When will Anthropic IPO?
- What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026?
- Anthropic 2026 peak valuation
- Anthropic 2027 peak valuation
- Anthropic 2028 peak valuation
1,000People are also trading
@JoeandSeth Can you clarify whether this is referring to standard market cap as seen on Yahoo Finance or to a future fully diluted market cap (even though the stock won't be fully diluted for years)? Other similar markets on here reference things such as Yahoo Finance or companiesmarketcap.com which tend to refer to standard market caps and not the future fully diluted market cap, even though sophisticated financial news sources often refer to that fully diluted market cap.
Note that one of your other Anthropic Market Cap questions uses Yahoo Finance/Google Finance as a source of truth
@AlexMiller3a5e intent is the number most commonly thrown around. My understanding is that currently Anthropic will IPO at market cap between 1.1 and 1.5T. I am not an expert in the terminology but am not very interested in engaging in any gritty that points away from the common understanding. In my experience markets that do leave too many people upset.
Based on current market state, nobody else seems to share this concern of yours, though, so I'm heartened.
@JoeandSeth Well I was pointing to the same issue on a different market.
@AlexMiller3a5e >"even though the stock won't be fully diluted for years"
Yes the stock won't be fully diluted for years but does this matter?
Consider what would you pay for a 1% share of something you think is currently worth $1 million but is expected to increase in value? Compare that to what you would pay for the same but there would be some future dilution of your share from 1% to 0.8%. It would be less right? So the price paid now takes those extra shares that may come into existence into account.
>"In my experience markets that do [get into technical details?] leave too many people upset."
Generally I do like a 'substance over form' approach so I have some sympathy for this. However my view is it is under specification of the market that causes the upset. (As an example saying "we will use the original listing price for the purposes of this question" but not saying how that listing price will be used as in whether it is multiplied by currently outstanding number of shares or the fully diluted number of shares.)
@ChristopherRandles agreed that as an investor you should pay less though lots of stocks dilute you over time. part of the confusion is that most of the closing market cap questions out there don't use fully diluted shares but outstanding shares and the difference is ~38%.
@AlexMiller3a5e not to lock myself into a single interpretive source but to give an idea for traders: if the headlines are "Anthropic IPOs at 1.4 trillion" just like they've been (for months!) "anthropic could IPO at 2 trillion" then that's the resolution number. If for some reason most sites use the class A shares number or some other thing and it turns out that's been the number all along and I've been grossly mistaken about how any of this works in a way that actually matters to people then sure. But I'm done trying to nail this one down further. If you think the resolution ends up being wrong you can review it thus, and should trade under this information.
See
@traders since >2T is trending up, I also now have this: