Anthropic is reported to be considering an IPO as early as 2026. This market resolves to the market cap of Anthropic at its listing price. There are already many of these markets but most tended to have buckets like $1.3-2.1T and $800B-$1.6 T. Those buckets are sitting upwards of 50%, so I made this market to get better data.
(Note that on the day of the IPO the stock may close at a higher or lower price depending on how the market reacts. But we will use the original listing price for the purposes of this question.)
See also:
- /JoeandSeth/at-what-valuation-will-anthropic-ip
- When will Anthropic IPO?
- What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026?
- Anthropic 2026 peak valuation
- Anthropic 2027 peak valuation
- Anthropic 2028 peak valuation
- What will Anthropic's initial share price be?
Update 2026-11-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market cap will be calculated using the fully diluted share count at the listing price.
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@JoeandSeth Since you have said "original listing price" that seems to leave the question of what number of shares should be used.
7,427,991,791 (class A) or
13,086,672,593 (class A + N) or
18.0 billion (fully diluted) shares or
something else?
These obviously give quite different answers!
Some details of shares
The breakdown of shares by class includes:
Class A Common Stock: 7,427,991,791 shares expected to be outstanding after the offering (including the public offering of 825 million shares). Class A shares carry one vote per share and pro rata economic rights. [1, 2]
Class N Common Stock: Issued via the $26.0 billion concurrent private placement with strategic investors (such as Google, Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and others). Class N shares have no regular voting rights but share economic rights. (Combined with Class A, there are approximately 13.087 billion economically entitled shares)
Class T, Class F, and Class E shares: Do not carry regular economic or dividend rights beyond nominal par value ($0.00001) in a liquidation event.
Based on Anthropic’s amended Form S-1 filing (Amendment No. 2) and IPO roadshow disclosures from November 2026, the company’s fully diluted share count is approximately 18.0 billion shares.
At the top end of its $70 to $78 IPO price range, this fully diluted figure implies a valuation of up to $1.404 trillion (compared to ~$1.02 trillion based solely on immediate post-IPO outstanding shares).
Breakdown of Fully Diluted Share Components
Because SEC filings distinguish between shares immediately outstanding and potential future issuances, the fully diluted total builds up from the base post-offering count:
Base Post-Offering Outstanding Shares: 13,086,672,593 shares. This includes all Class A and Class N common stock expected to be outstanding immediately after the IPO and the $26.0 billion strategic private placement.
Outstanding Employee Stock Options: 1,774,342,693 shares. These carry a weighted-average exercise price of $2.91 per share.
Unvested Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): ~1,026,660,010 shares (roughly 1.03 billion to 1.07 billion depending on post-September 30 grant cutoffs) that remain unvested at the time of listing.
Future Equity & Purchase Plan Reserves: ~2.05 billion shares. This consists of approximately 1.92 billion shares reserved for issuance under the new 2026 Equity Incentive Plan and 128 million shares reserved for the Employee Stock Purchase Plan.
Other Potential Issuances: The remaining variance (roughly 100 million to 600 million shares) accounts for the underwriters' 30-day greenshoe option (123,750,000 shares), post-quarter RSU grants, vested obligations under the Donation Matching Plan, and shares issued in recent acquisitions.
@ChristopherRandles this is a lot of words that seem to have missed "market cap" unless that is actually a more controversial term here?
The 1.4T number is closest to what I understand to be "value".
@JoeandSeth The first line of my post said
Since you have said "original listing price" that seems to leave the question of what number of shares should be used.
The $1.404 trillion figure is $78 as top of $70-$78 range multiplied by 18 billion as the number of fully diluted shares.
The potential problem that I was seeing was
Google finance using 7,427,991,791 shares to provide value of the traded share class, class A in its market cap number, and
Yahoo finance using 13,086,672,593 as the current outstanding shares, class A and class N shares in their market cap number, and
The financial press talking a market cap that uses the fully diluted number of shares of 18 billion like the $78 * 18B = $1.404 T.
and traders being unsure which should be used.
Having specified the "original listing price" also specifying it is the fully diluted number of shares that will be used to arrive at Market Cap would be one plausible way of clearly specifying it.
Another way might be to use the market cap value discussed in financial press as that is more likely to refer to the value of the business as a whole.
@ChristopherRandles ok thank you for explaining. I do not care to pick nits. The commonly-understood value is the intent here.
The title says valuation. It resolves to what Anthropic is worth at listing price, the number everyone means when they say it. Partial-share-class figures from a finance widget aren't an interpretation I meant to entertain.
Before your comment I have literally never seen any source suggesting Anthropic's market cap be interpreted as either of those two other numbers.
If for some reason a large number of other similarly worded markets decide to use some other weird calculation I suppose I'd follow their leads. My intent was to provide better granularity to preexisting markets.