What will be the valuation of Anthropic in 2026? (M1000 subsidy)
23
1.4kṀ2930
2027
8%
<$25 billion
5%
$25–50 billion
12%
$50–100 billion
45%
$100–200 billion
22%
$200–400 billion
5%
$400–800 billion
2%
$800 billion – $1.6 trillion
0.5%
$1.6–3.2 trillion
0.2%
>$3.2 trillion

Resolves to the valuation of Anthropic at the end of 2026, according to (in order) 1) the current market capitalization if there was an IPO, 2) the valuation of the most recent priced round or acquisition, if publicly known and <6 months old, or 3) the price of the most recent non-public deals on secondary markets, as determined by my own research and with adjustments for fees (currently: $27b).

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I feel like I wanna create an accompanying market for this re: likelihood Anthropic gets acquired or merges with another company in the next few years. It just doesn’t seem like the type of company capable of staying completely independent for more than 5 years, 7 at the most.

If the company doesn't exist, is that N/A or <$25B?

@HenriThunberg <$25B (unless the reason for nonexistence is acquisition). I will try to avoid N/A.

@HenriThunberg <$25B, unless the reason for nonexistence is acquisition. I will try to avoid N/A if possible.

@JonasVollmer if the reason is acquisition, do you use the acquisition price (even if >6 months old)?

@rogs Yes. Not ideal but the best option I could find

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