Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump serves any time in prison or jail due to criminal convictions or sentences related to his actions. This includes any incarceration resulting from state or federal criminal cases. The market resolves NO if Trump never serves prison time for any criminal conviction.

Trump was convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in May 2024, but on January 10, 2025, the judge issued an unconditional discharge, meaning Trump will not be fined, will not receive jail time and will not be given probation for that conviction.

Charges were dropped in the Georgia case and the two federal cases. On November 26, 2025, the new prosecutor, Pete Skandalakis, dropped all charges in Georgia. Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the classified documents case, and the Office of the Special Counsel later chose to wind down the case following Trump's election in November 2024. Judge Tanya Chutkan dismissed the January 6 case without prejudice.

Background

Four criminal indictments were filed against Trump in 2023: two on state charges (one in New York and one in Georgia) and two on federal charges (one in Florida and one in the District of Columbia). As of November 26, 2025, he had been found guilty of 34 criminal counts, and 52 charges were dismissed.

Considerations

Trump cannot pardon himself for the New York state charges because he was convicted on state charges. However, unless the 34 convictions are overturned in the future, Trump will have felonies on his record. Trump filed an appeal in the New York case on October 27, 2025, which could potentially affect the conviction's status.