Will "The Winds of Winter", Book Six of A Song of Fire and Ice, by George R. R. Martin, be released in 2023?
Basic
49
Ṁ26k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
If "The Winds of Winter" is available for purchase and delivery (i.e. being available for pre-order only does not count) at any time in 2023, this will resolve to true. Jan 13, 4:53pm: #books #fiction #fantasy
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

@NcyRocks I think your arb bot is wrong here

@jacksonpolack It appears that the bot is planning to assassinate GRRM before 2024

@jacksonpolack 🤦 Thanks for the heads up! I got those markets mixed up, and I thought I separated them all out but evidently not...

bought Ṁ20 YES

Maybe the writer's strike will reduce the number of distractions for George. bumping the odds a bit.

He talks about how he is excited about writing books set in Westeros, but points out that there are like 5 or 6 other things he's interested in besides Winds of Winter. And given that he seems pretty annoyed about discussing WoW, I think he will focus on his other projects. Plus, he doesn't seem to output more than three books a year. So I'd guess that he's probably not going to get the book out next year.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules