By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak. This will be achieved by banning transgender content from media and by general control over information and disinformation. Any officially recognized transgender people will be managed by coerced interventions, either penal or psychiatric, or possibly alternative therapeutic interventions like behavioral therapies, wilderness retreats etc.
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What is a "major government? You have outlined the case of US states, but what about other countries? Does Saudi Arabia count? Does the Taliban government in Afghanistan count? Does Palau count? Does the government need to be internationally recognized? Does it need to govern over a territory / GDP / population big enough?
@milanw I mean really just any national government as long as it's broadly recognized. Really the only governments I'd rule out are those in active contention.
A government making a claim for "transgender contagion theory"? Sure, that's plausible. A government claiming to have "control" over the situation? Unlikely. If the "emergency" is over, they would lose their emergency powers.
@evergreenemily Not in the presence of a US federal government. However, in the absence of a US federal government, any US state or equivalent territory with conceptual continuity with a US state is allowed, provided it has a GDP at least as large as the smallest EU member state.