Resolution criteria

The nuclear option is a Senate parliamentary move that lets a simple majority change chamber precedent to bypass the 60-vote cloture threshold. This market resolves YES if the Senate invokes the nuclear option specifically to pass a continuing resolution (CR) funding bill. Resolution will be determined by official Senate records and news reports confirming that the nuclear option was used to change the cloture threshold for a CR vote. The market resolves NO if a CR passes through normal legislative processes (with 60+ votes) or if the government shutdown ends without a CR being passed via the nuclear option.

Background

As of late October 2025, the government shutdown is tied for the second-longest in U.S. history. Republicans failed to reach the 60 votes needed to move forward on a CR, and some GOP members have called for using the nuclear option to override the 60-vote rule and pass the CR with a simple majority vote. President Trump recently called for Republicans to invoke the nuclear option, immediately ratcheting up pressure on Republican leaders who have adamantly opposed eliminating the 60-vote threshold. Historically, the nuclear option has been applied specifically to nominations in 2013 and 2017, not to ordinary legislation.

Considerations

Using the nuclear option for appropriations bills would be an unprecedented expansion beyond past usage and would carry substantial risks of institutional erosion and future retaliation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has ruled out changing Senate rules and stated his position on the legislative filibuster remains unchanged. In private meetings, Vice President Vance admitted that Senate Republicans likely don't have the votes to end the filibuster.

• Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve until the CR funding bill is officially signed by the president, even if the nuclear option has not been used to pass it through the Senate.

• Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve until the CR funding bill is officially signed by the president, even if the nuclear option has not been used. The creator wants to ensure the bill is fully codified and doesn't fall through, requiring the Senate to restart the process.