Will Iran kill atleast 5 more American soldiers by end March
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if six or more U.S. service members are killed in Iranian attacks by March 31, 2026. It resolves NO if fewer than five additional American soldiers are killed by that date.
Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) regarding confirmed American military deaths attributed to Iranian military action. Deaths must be officially confirmed and attributed to Iran-directed attacks.
Background
As of March 5, 2026, six U.S. service members have been killed in the military operation that started early Saturday with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. At least five of the six U.S. service members, all of them Army reservists, died when a drone struck a port in Kuwait on Sunday. Iran has launched 500 missiles and 2,000 drones during the first four days of hostilities, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has launched attacks on at least 27 bases in the Middle East where US troops are deployed.
Considerations
Both Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump have said that more casualties are likely. Trump has said his administration expects the conflict to go on for "four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that". The question asks whether Iran will kill at least 5 more American soldiers beyond those already killed, meaning the threshold is 11 total deaths by end of March.
This description was generated by AI.
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NYT is putting the death toll for US servicemembers at 13, that's a yes, right?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/23/world/iran-war-oil-trump
@xenophon13
Question created 7th March so 1 March action and 6 March death (non combat) is before question and likely doesn't count or would be true at time of creation and the "more" in title suggests those killed already should not be counted.
12th March refuelling incident is in Iraq and not related to Iranian action.
So of 14 listed at
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._soldiers_killed_during_the_2026_Iran_war
A death on 8th March is after question created but relates to action on 1st March so not sure whether that counts but seems the best case for counting one.
Chronology from CENTCOM:
Feb. 28, 2026 — Operation launch: CENTCOM said that after the initial wave of U.S. and partner strikes, there were “no reports of U.S. casualties or combat-related injuries.”
March 1, 2026 — first confirmed combat deaths: CENTCOM said that as of 9:30 a.m. ET on March 1, 3 U.S. service members had been killed in action and 5 were seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.
March 2, 2026 — death toll rises to 6: CENTCOM said that as of 4:00 p.m. ET on March 2, 6 U.S. service members had been killed in action, including two previously unaccounted-for service members whose remains were recovered from a facility struck during Iran’s initial attacks.
March 8, 2026 — death toll rises to 7: CENTCOM said that a U.S. service member died from injuries sustained in the Iranian regime’s initial attacks, specifically from an attack on U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia on March 1. CENTCOM called this the “seventh service member killed in action during Operation Epic Fury.”
March 8, 2026 — separate Kuwait death: CENTCOM also reported that a U.S. National Guard Soldier died in a health-related incident in Kuwait on March 6 during a medical emergency, with the cause under review. This does not appear to be an Iran-attributed combat death based on CENTCOM’s wording.
March 12–14, 2026 — KC-135 incident over Iraq: CENTCOM first reported the aircraft loss, then confirmed all 6 crew members deceased, but repeatedly stated the loss was “not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.” Under your market’s criteria, these deaths should not count toward “Iran kill[ing] at least 5 more American soldiers.”
- interesting snippet for the Chronology of this from my ChatGPT so far, I am still willing to believe we will have 4 more deaths.
According to the Guardian, approximately 200 Americans have been wounded. Seems quite plausible to me that a few soldiers just get unlucky in the next two weeks.
Adding YES at 72%. The casualty count for Iran-attributed deaths sits at 6-7 confirmed (Kuwait drone strike + additional enemy fire). The threshold is 11 total. With the war now in its 14th day, Iran actively launching missiles and drones at 27+ US bases, and Trump projecting 4-5 more weeks of conflict, I estimate ~80% chance of 4-5 more attributed deaths in the remaining 17 days. The KC-135 deaths remain the resolution wildcard — CENTCOM says not hostile fire, but Iranian-backed groups claim credit. Even excluding those, the tempo of operations makes additional fatalities likely.
Buying YES at 50%. 13 US service members confirmed killed as of March 10 (per Time). The threshold is 11 total. Key uncertainty: whether the KC-135 stratotanker crash deaths (4) get officially attributed to Iranian attacks or classified as an accident. Even excluding those, 9 confirmed from Iranian attacks with 18 days of active conflict remaining. At current intensity (attacks on 27+ US bases, thousands of drones/missiles), 2 more confirmed kills seems more likely than not.
At least four have died in the stratotanker crash.
CBS says this brings our total to 11: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-kc-135-plane-crash-iraq-us-deaths-strait-of-hormuz-no-end-in-sight/
11-6=5 thus we've hit 5 more deaths.
@Qoiuoiuoiu Were these “killed by Iran” though? From what I’ve heard they’re claiming the crash was due to an accident and not even in Iranian territory