Will Iran kill atleast 5 more American soldiers by end March

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if six or more U.S. service members are killed in Iranian attacks by March 31, 2026. It resolves NO if fewer than five additional American soldiers are killed by that date.

Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) regarding confirmed American military deaths attributed to Iranian military action. Deaths must be officially confirmed and attributed to Iran-directed attacks.

Background

As of March 5, 2026, six U.S. service members have been killed in the military operation that started early Saturday with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. At least five of the six U.S. service members, all of them Army reservists, died when a drone struck a port in Kuwait on Sunday. Iran has launched 500 missiles and 2,000 drones during the first four days of hostilities, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has launched attacks on at least 27 bases in the Middle East where US troops are deployed.

Considerations

Both Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump have said that more casualties are likely. Trump has said his administration expects the conflict to go on for "four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that". The question asks whether Iran will kill at least 5 more American soldiers beyond those already killed, meaning the threshold is 11 total deaths by end of March.

This description was generated by AI.