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MANIFOLD
Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of April?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ173
May 1
61%
chance

Resolves based on trusted news sources.

Edge Cases and Clarifications (Additions post-creation will be clearly marked):

  • Has to be a manned aircraft.

  • Iranian proxy groups in Iran count as Iran.

    • If they're outside Iran (e.g., Hezbollah, etc.), they don't count

  • If the vehicle successfully lands (e.g., runway or motorway), it doesn't count, regardless of injuries/fatalities. The aircraft would need to sustain significant damage upon "landing"/crashing for it to count.

  • Only shootdowns occurring after question creation count.

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