As of market creation, the Wikipedia article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests lists a minimum of 7,015 deaths in the protests.

Meanwhile, the article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli%E2%80%93United_States_strikes_on_Iran lists 24 deaths in Iran.

The market resolves when the minimum number in the second article shows more than 7,015 deaths in Iran. This number of 7,015 is fixed for the purposes of this market, no matter what.

Eventual American/Israeli/Arab/etc ground troop deaths do not count, nor do deaths outside Iranian territory (this territory includes the territorial sea and airspace). For example, the second article currently lists one death in Abu Dhabi; that is excluded.

In case the reference article changes (gets renamed, split, merged, etc), what matters is whatever the main article is that contains the general infobox about the war that started today (2026-02-28). In case of edit wars and other shenanigans, those involved are encouraged to seek help.