Will the AI Snake Oil book be out of date by the time it's published? | Manifold

Will the AI Snake Oil book be out of date by the time it's published?

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'AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference' comes out on 2024/9/24. I will consider it out of date if >50% of the things it claims AI can't do can be done by then.

Protocol (rough draft, open to improvements):

Have LLM(s) extract concrete claims of what AI can't do from the book
Randomly sample a few (10-20?)
Have 2 people independently assess whether AI can do them (YES/NO) and give half credit in case of disagreement

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