Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?
21
Ṁ1kṀ1.6k
2099
7%
Other
50%
Before 2030
15%
Between 2030-2039
0.5%
Never, AGI kills all humans first
28%
2040 or later
The book can be *copy edited* by a human but no more than a book is usually copy edited.
Market context
Technology
AI
Books
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
Could use more buckets for this one
@SymbolProject You can add what you think is necessary

People are also trading

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
+7% 1d90% chance
In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status?
2033
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
45% chance
Will an AI agent write a New York Times bestselling book by end of 2028?
34% chance
[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2027
31
[Carlini questions] Number of AI 'authored' high-quality fiction books on New York Times best seller list by 2030
39
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
32% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
51% chance
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?
8% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
95% chance