Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?
Plus
8
Ṁ3362029
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Major social media platform = ≥100M active users according to Wikipedia
Privacy-preserving proof of personhood = any infrastructure that allows carbon-based Homo sapiens (and no other entities like AIs) prove they're unique individuals without revealing their identity, e.g. something like this
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I don't know exactly what threat models you're referring to with "quickly worked-around by social engineering, straw accounts, or GAN learning" so it's hard to say.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?
24% chance
Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?
57% chance
Will bots be the dominant population (>50%) on any leading social media platform by 2030?
63% chance
Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?
41% chance
Will any major social platform integrate OpenAI’s metadata to visibly indicate AI-generated images in 2024?
81% chance
Will a new social media platform be the most popular worldwide by 2032?
41% chance
Will BCI/neurotech be integrated into Twitter's "Verified Users" algorithm by 2030?
39% chance
Will some form of decentralized social media have at least 5% global user share by 2030?
51% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2028?
40% chance
Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?
35% chance