Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon? | Manifold

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

8

1.1kṀ218

Dec 31

70%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will base my resolution on the largest version of Gemini 3.0 released, not counting parallel test-time compute scaling (like deep think).

Will resolve if the model comes out before 2026 but Metr doesn’t evaluate it until after.

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