The 50% time horizon will be used for resolution. 2 hours and 42 minutes is the length of the METR 50% time horizon for GPT-5.1.-Codex-Max and will be used for the purposes of resolving this market. Ties resolve no.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Opus 4.5's METR time horizon has not been released by the end of the year, the resolution date will be extended.
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@1bets opus 4.5's METR time horizon hasn't been released so tbd (and I will extend the resolution date in the unlikely event we don't have it by the end of the year)
@BenAybar You are talking about Gemini 3 but the question asks about whether Claude Opus 4.5 will beat GPT 5.1. Is this question about Gemini or Claude Opus?
@MaxLennartson I have another market about Gemini 3 vs opus 4.5 and somehow mixed things up, this is very much a market about opus. I'll edit the other comment