Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon? | Manifold

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

113

1kṀ20k

Dec 30

85%

chance

12

1H

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1D

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1M

ALL

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.

See also:

/Bayesian/gemini-3s-50-time-horizon-per-metr

METR Time Horizon

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@AshDorsey No, thanks

Bearish

boughtṀ250YES

@CameronHolmes do you want to bet more

@Bayesian erm probably not at this point I'm afraid and especially not if you are offering! 😂

@CameronHolmes 😭

bought Ṁ150 NO

what about at 43%

@Bayesian I'd buy 500 YES at 43% still interested?

im taking orders of 3000 mana or more at 50% today ping me

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