Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon? | Manifold

Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?

11

Ṁ100Ṁ281

2027

90%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

For the purposes of this market, any model OpenAI releases that appears to be a successor to GPT-5.1 will resolve, regardless if it’s actual name.

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AI model releases

GPT-5 Speculation

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