Gemini 3's METR 50% time horizon

162

1.5kṀ160k

Dec 31

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

2h - 2.5h

32%

2.5h - 3h

34%

3h - 3.5h

15%

3.5h - 4h

4h - 5h

1.5%

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

0.5%

7h - 8h

0.3%

8h - 9h

0.1%

9h - 10h

0.1%

10h - 11h

0.1%

11h - 12h

0.1%

>=12h

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Gemini 3 model released within a month of the first Gemini 3 announcement.

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.

Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

People are also trading

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

27% chance

Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?

80% chance

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

85% chance

Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?

30% chance

R2's METR 50% time horizon

Will the Gemini 3.0 Pro METR score release in 2025?

71% chance

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

77% chance

Grok 5's METR 50% time horizon

Gemini 3 Deep Think available on API in 2025?

16% chance

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Sort by:

This is interesting https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1999585226989928650?s=20

@Bayesian Hello, why did the market got closed ?

why did it got closed ??? there is no answer wtf

@Amonium bc the close date was set too soon. fixed

bought Ṁ20 YES

@Bayesian Thank you.

Why are wee all in hold ?!

https://x.com/GregHBurnham/status/1993509024097292388?s=20

some useful references here perhaps

How does this resolve if METR doesn't evaluate any Gemini 3 model which is released within a month?

@jim I think the “within a month” thing means any model of Gemini’s released within a month of the first announcement, not METR’s analysis

@bens yes, but it's not guaranteed that any Gemini models which meet this condition will be evaluated by METR.

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 1.0% order

@jim i'll bet they will

but if they don't then ~~obviously it would resolve to <1.5h~~ jk it would resolve N/A

oh no they probably won't that's devastating i forgot they waited for general access before testing gemini 2.5 pro

sold Ṁ176 NO

@Bayesian yeah

opened a Ṁ7 YES at 28% order

@Bayesian what do you mean by general access?

@MaxLennartson The currently available model is gemini 3 pro preview. General access is when they remove all modifiers and sctually call the model gemini 3 pro in the api and such