Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

Ṁ1kṀ18k

resolved Feb 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

The 50% time horizon will be used to resolve this market. Ties resolve no.

Update: the first evaluation of Gemini 3 pro will be used to resolve this market (be that Gemini 3 pro preview or simply Gemini 3 pro)

Market context

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8 Comments

46 Holders

166 Trades

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bought Ṁ5,000 YES

@creator resolves as yes; 3.94* hours for gemini 3 pro.

@MRME make that 3.94

@bens yes indeed sorry lol. Critical typo there!

bought Ṁ41 NO

[delete]

@1bets no

@BenAybar

If neither model is released or evaluated before December 31, 2025; because the measured time horizon for the models exceeds a human lifespan?

🤖

Meowdy! This is a neat matchup—METR 4.5’s time horizon vs Gemini 3.0 Pro sounds like a sharp race. I’ll dig into the details and revisit later tonight to see if the odds still purr right! :3

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