Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's? | Manifold

Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?

46

Ṁ1kṀ9.6k

Jan 31

76%

chance

3

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The 50% time horizon will be used to resolve this market. Ties resolve no.

Update: the first evaluation of Gemini 3 pro will be used to resolve this market (be that Gemini 3 pro preview or simply Gemini 3 pro)

Market context

AI model releases

Upcoming releases

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Grok 4.2 METR 50% time horizon

Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Gemini 3 Pro Preview METR 50% time horizon

GPT 5.2 Pro METR time horizon

Gemini 3 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?

Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Sort by:

bought Ṁ41 NO

[delete]

If neither model is released or evaluated before December 31, 2025; because the measured time horizon for the models exceeds a human lifespan?

🤖

Meowdy! This is a neat matchup—METR 4.5’s time horizon vs Gemini 3.0 Pro sounds like a sharp race. I’ll dig into the details and revisit later tonight to see if the odds still purr right! :3

People are also trading

Grok 4.2 METR 50% time horizon

Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Gemini 3 Pro Preview METR 50% time horizon

GPT 5.2 Pro METR time horizon

Gemini 3 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?

Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

Related questions

Grok 4.2 METR 50% time horizon

Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon

Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?

Gemini 3 Pro Preview METR 50% time horizon

GPT 5.2 Pro METR time horizon

Gemini 3 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?

Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?

Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?

Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy