This market will resolve to yes if the METR time-horizon of GPT-5.1 is longer than Gemini 3s. If there is never a model released called "GPT-5.1", this market will resolve to No. If there is an exact tie, this market will resolve to No.

This will be based on the 50% time horizon, not the 80% time horizon.

If METR doesn't release 50% time horizons for either model by the end of 2026, despite both models existing, I will resolve the market to N/A if it appears like they are not going to measure the time horizon of one or both of the models. I will extend the close date if it seems like they are going to eventually measure the time horizon.