Jasmine's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.74
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Jasmine bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
50%
60%
- Will a Delaware judge order Elon Musk to complete the twitter deal at the original terms?NOṀ25
- Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?NOṀ20
- Will we know whether the patient in "for no laid course prepare" survived before midnight PDT?YESṀ20
70%
80%
90%
97%