Will Manifold keep the Bot Tax for at least the rest of 2022?
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แน€420
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

Manifold just introduced at a "bot tax" or a flat M$0.1 transaction fee on all quick bets and limit orders to prevent bot spam.

This market resolves negatively if we remove or delete the fee for any reason prior to the end of the year (even if we end up reintroducing it later). Reducing the fee but not removing it will count as YES.

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I was looking for this fee in the "fees" section of incoming bets on the API, but didn't see anything there. Is it just being subtracted more sneakily?

@MichaelWheatley It's a "transactional" fee not a "bet" fee. The latter is returned to traders if the market is N/A-ed (or would be, if we had fees); the former is not.

@SG I'd recommend changing this so that all fees are reversed for N/As, for two reasons:

  • Emotionally N/As are already an anticlimax, and now you're making that worse by saying that everyone loses

  • Irreversible fees break the conceptual cleanness of N/As: the closer N/As are to reversing everything, the closer you get to this cool feature where you can safely condition your reasoning on an assumption that an N/A will not happen. Especially in e.g. "if Russia uses a nuke will NATO retaliate" where we expect an N/A, I want to be able to just mentally inhabit the world where a nuke was definitely used, rather than also multiplying irreversible fees by the very large chance that a nuke is not used.

@BenjaminCosman That makes sense in the general case but not in the specific case of a M$0.1 transaction fee designed to deter bots from spamming our site.

The transaction fee actually reflects a real cost to our infrastructure, user attention, and site speed that exists even if the market is N/A'd. Reversing it for N/A'd markets sets the wrong incentives (on the margin, it means bots can spam more on conditional markets whose preconditions are unlikely to be met).

@SG But consider https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear-4acd2868830b (ignore the wiggles)
You would not want to bet on this market unless you expect to make at least $10 per bet conditional on not N/A.

(although one could argue that M$0.1 is negligible compared to the opportunity cost of locking up your mana for 2 weeks, and this fee doesn't break amplified odds markets because they were already broken)

Was this announced anywhere? It's a small enough fee for normal human participants that it doesn't really make a difference, but it still feels bad to me on principle that a 'hidden' fee was added without alerting me (I might easily have never seen this market).

@BenjaminCosman It is posted in the Updates channel on our Discord and will be announced in our next newsletter.

@SG Ok! I am satisfied, thank you :) For a similar but bigger change, I'd want to see advance warning, but I also understand that this is a new and rapidly evolving platform, so this is more "here's a consideration I want to make sure is on your radar" rather than "you are a shady company if you don't do this" :)

bought แน€10 of YES

Does the fee currently go somewhere? If not, can it go to the subsidy?

predicted YES

I second this

To be clear, does this also apply to the API? If not, shouldn't it?

@LivInTheLookingGlass Yes, it applies to all trades.

bought แน€10 of YES

Makes a ton of sense to me to have at least a tiny fee like this. Presumably the fee applies to all trades, bot or not, lest the bots be tempted to pose as humans using the website.

@dreev It does.

What if you reduce the fee? Is it still a YES?

@Yev Yes, reducing the fee but not removing it will count as YES.