Will Joe Biden seek a second term in 2024?
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687
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resolved Sep 8
Resolved
YES

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

This is trading far too high. There is definitely >1% chance that he steps down due to age or something

@MarcusAbramovitch As below, one can argue convincingly that this should already be resolved since it’s just about seeking the term. Olivia has stopped being active on Manifold so idk what her interpretation is

@LivInTheLookingGlass Can you clarify?

bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

Resolves YES.


https://www.newsmax.com/politics/joe-biden-election-2024-president-democrats-trump/2023/04/25/id/1117393/

President Joe Biden on Tuesday formally announced that he is running for reelection in 2024, asking voters to give him more time to “finish the job” he began when he was sworn in to office and to set aside their concerns about extending the run of America’s oldest president for another four years.

@Gabrielle The question is about what will happen "in 2024," so it's not clear to me why it should resolve in 2023 even if the 2024 event is very likely. For example, if Joe Biden were to pass away in 2023, it should presumably resolve NO.

predicted YES

@JacyAnthis As I interpreted it, “in 2024” is shorthand for “in the 2024 presidential race”, in which case it’s already happened and should still resolve YES if Joe Biden dies tomorrow.

predicted YES

@JacyAnthis I resolved my similar market, with no complaints: /NcyRocks/will-joe-biden-run-for-president-in

@Gabrielle @NcyRocks if that's the shorthand, then that seems right. If not, then I think these would be considered misresolved if, say, Biden passed away before 2024.

predicted YES

Should be resolved?

bought Ṁ500 of YES

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ap-interview-biden-ready-to-run-first-lady-jill-biden-says/

First lady Jill Biden gave one of the clearest indications yet that President Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview on Friday that there's "pretty much" nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement. 

predicted NO

@Gabrielle Even if he does decide to run, at his age he can’t be terribly fast. Another Democrat could surely catch and overtake him.

bought Ṁ20 of NO
bought Ṁ35 of NO
bought Ṁ50 of YES

Biden and the DNC have already taken steps to eliminate the possibility of a contested primary. They have even already ruled out the possibility of any debates. Unless the states start organizing primaries without the national party’s support and money this is inevitable. There will be clear steps taken by DNC if it is even remotely possible he won’t run and I just don’t see any indication of that at all.

@BTEF2P Source?