Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024? | Manifold

Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?

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The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, engl. Alternative for Germany) has never been part of a coalition at national or state level in Germany yet (they helped to elect Kemmerich in Thuringia, but weren't formally part of a coalition).

There will be three elections in 2024 in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. In current polls in Saxony, the AfD holds around 30% of votes. All major parties publically said they wouldn't build a coalition with the AfD.

This market resolves YES if there is a coalition at a state (or national) level that includes the AfD before Dec 31st, 2024.

Jan 30, 11:40pm: ~~Will the right-wing party AfD be part of a state-level government in Germany in 2024?~~ → Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?

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Can be resolved NO.

Will it count if the government will be formed next year? E.g. in January AfD+BSW form a government in Thuringia. I'd think NO since the coalition did not exist end of December.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/germany-afd-party-deportation-masterplan-protests
Gives me hope.

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