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If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
8
Ṁ1.3kṀ333
2040
20%
<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar
18%
0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar
12%
1-2x FLOP/s per dollar
15%
2-4x FLOP/s per dollar
34%
>4x FLOP/s per dollar

IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 5 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.

I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f

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I feel like big tech would find the resources and will to counterfactually speed up top-ML chip production elsewhere by years. Or we'll get a world war with top-ML chip production falling worldwide and militaries acquiring a majority of the existing chips.

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