This market predicts whether the European Union will still exist as a political and economic union of member states with shared sovereignty in key policy areas by December 31, 2050.

For this market to resolve YES, the EU must:

1. Have at least 20 member states

2. Maintain a single market with free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among member states

3. Have common institutions including the European Commission, European Parliament, and European Council

4. Have a common currency (Euro) used by a majority of member states

The market resolves NO if:

1. The EU formally dissolves or is replaced by a substantially weaker different entity with a different name (The creation of a European Federation, for example, would not resolve the market NO)

2. The EU fragments into smaller regional blocs or separate entities

3. The EU loses core competencies and becomes merely a free trade area without political integration

4. The number of member states falls below 20

5. The Euro is abandoned as the common currency by a majority of current Eurozone members

Resolution sources: Official EU websites, major news outlets reporting on the status of the EU.

2075: https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/will-the-european-union-still-exist-PESPQ6E88Z

2100: https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/will-the-european-union-still-exist-Qluy9US5uR