This is a personal insurance market!
An injury must be more serious than minor scrapes to resolve YES. Requires a fracture or a large amount of scrapes that take a while to heal.
I ride my electric unicycle to work every day (which is a 3-4 minute trip since it's close), and to other nearby places like restaurants.
I haven't had any accidents in the ~8 months I've had it so far.
Despite that, the base rate for accidents seems somewhat high given the traffic. I did fall from my electric skateboard last year and broke my collar bone.
1,000
3.00@JamesGrugett Ah, but isn't what we're seeing just the interest rate (or lack thereof) at work? Only one side has enough incentive to bet - there's not enough ROI on the NO side.
@JamesBaker3 You're right, that definitely a factor, though should still be true for the YES side?
Wish we still had loans though!
@JamesGrugett 500% return on YES vs 16% on NO currently... true, people should be discounting that 500% by their actual estimate % but I still think the asymmetry is significant.
ooh I also commute by EUC and my coworker just happened to make a market on whether I'd crash as well. Here's a sweet video of my commute: https://youtu.be/u856MKdS09s?si=K89OB_uBNt-7Q3qX
@TaoLin That's amazing. What a coincidence. And cool video!
I hope we are both able to emerge in 2025 unscathed!