This is a personal insurance market!
An injury must be more serious than minor scrapes to resolve YES. Requires a fracture or a large amount of scrapes that take a while to heal.
I ride my electric unicycle to work every day (which is a 3-4 minute trip since it's close), and to other nearby places like restaurants.
I haven't had any accidents in the ~8 months I've had it so far.
Despite that, the base rate for accidents seems somewhat high given the traffic. I did fall from my electric skateboard last year and broke my collar bone.
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I recently decided to try an electric scooter, and to be honest, it was more fun than I expected. But the joy quickly turned to anxiety when one of my friends fell and got seriously injured. Then I realized that such trips are not only convenient and fun, but also risky. Even if you ride carefully, there are always factors on the road that are beyond your control. So I began to pay more attention to insurance issues and advise others not to ignore this topic either. It is useful to study the reviews on https://xcover-com.pissedconsumer.com/customer-service.html in advance to understand how support works and what to really expect from the service in case of trouble.
I bought the unicycle from James: https://manifold.markets/vlad/will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr-n9zLhl6pSd
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@JamesGrugett Ah, but isn't what we're seeing just the interest rate (or lack thereof) at work? Only one side has enough incentive to bet - there's not enough ROI on the NO side.
@JamesBaker3 You're right, that definitely a factor, though should still be true for the YES side?
Wish we still had loans though!
@JamesGrugett 500% return on YES vs 16% on NO currently... true, people should be discounting that 500% by their actual estimate % but I still think the asymmetry is significant.
ooh I also commute by EUC and my coworker just happened to make a market on whether I'd crash as well. Here's a sweet video of my commute: https://youtu.be/u856MKdS09s?si=K89OB_uBNt-7Q3qX
@TaoLin That's amazing. What a coincidence. And cool video!
I hope we are both able to emerge in 2025 unscathed!