Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024?
➕
Plus
50
33k
2025
18%
chance

This is a personal insurance market!

An injury must be more serious than minor scrapes to resolve YES. Requires a fracture or a large amount of scrapes that take a while to heal.

I ride my electric unicycle to work every day (which is a 3-4 minute trip since it's close), and to other nearby places like restaurants.

I haven't had any accidents in the ~8 months I've had it so far.

Despite that, the base rate for accidents seems somewhat high given the traffic. I did fall from my electric skateboard last year and broke my collar bone.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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you're incentivizing someone to crash into you, good luck

opened a Ṁ45,000 YES at 15% order

It's a scary thing to see this rise steadily from 4% to 16%! I keep reseting my "insurance" limit order higher.

Now I'm buying 45k YES at 15%!

@JamesGrugett Ah, but isn't what we're seeing just the interest rate (or lack thereof) at work? Only one side has enough incentive to bet - there's not enough ROI on the NO side.

@JamesBaker3 You're right, that definitely a factor, though should still be true for the YES side?

Wish we still had loans though!

@JamesGrugett 500% return on YES vs 16% on NO currently... true, people should be discounting that 500% by their actual estimate % but I still think the asymmetry is significant.

ooh I also commute by EUC and my coworker just happened to make a market on whether I'd crash as well. Here's a sweet video of my commute: https://youtu.be/u856MKdS09s?si=K89OB_uBNt-7Q3qX

@TaoLin That's amazing. What a coincidence. And cool video!

I hope we are both able to emerge in 2025 unscathed!

$50 insurance…. Not near enough to cover your medical bill

@AmmonLam nearly*

How do you like the EUC compared to the electric skateboard?

if it’s a personal insurance market, should’t you be holding yes? 😛

opened a Ṁ50,000 YES at 4% order

@vlad Yes, I put in a big limit order at 4%!