Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
26
192
1k
2027
24%
chance

As far as I can remember, I've never been hit by a bike on an actual road, but I've come close on multiple occasions. I nearly got hit by a car last week because of Manifold. Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways. One semester (block), I earned a 6 (exceeding expectations) in both disposition and achievement for being so good at walking (the "class" was specifically walking).

To count as being "hit by a bike," I have to come in contact with a moving bike, the biker on the bike, or any of the bikers possessions (that can't flow in wind -- so something like paper or leaves won't count). And being intentionally hit by a bike or pushed into the bike lane doesn't count.

This'll resolve as soon as I get hit by a bike, and if I don't graduate high school, this will end when I would have (mid 2027). I won't trade on this market or increase my bike-hitting chances in any way (oops forgot about this for a sec). If someone hits me on a bike specifically to win this market, I'll resolve it in the opposite direction of their position (do not do this).

May 2, 5:42pm: Will I be hit by a bike before I graduate high school? → Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

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Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways.

Please try not to isekai.

i'd give this a ~20% chance for the next year, so ~60% chance if i sustain my bike probabilities. maybe there's some data that people's bike chances get higher once they get older

bought Ṁ10 of YES

if you keep going on manifold you certainly will

predicts YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

this is manipulatable!

predicts YES

@amzoeee brb, getting my bike

predicts YES

@ithildulin ascutvhdibjkaslasdadf,