Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
21
closes 2027
33%
chance

As far as I can remember, I've never been hit by a bike on an actual road, but I've come close on multiple occasions. I nearly got hit by a car last week because of Manifold. Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways. One semester (block), I earned a 6 (exceeding expectations) in both disposition and achievement for being so good at walking (the "class" was specifically walking).

To count as being "hit by a bike," I have to come in contact with a moving bike, the biker on the bike, or any of the bikers possessions (that can't flow in wind -- so something like paper or leaves won't count). And being intentionally hit by a bike or pushed into the bike lane doesn't count.

This'll resolve as soon as I get hit by a bike, and if I don't graduate high school, this will end when I would have (mid 2027). I won't trade on this market or increase my bike-hitting chances in any way (oops forgot about this for a sec). If someone hits me on a bike specifically to win this market, I'll resolve it in the opposite direction of their position (do not do this).

May 2, 5:42pm: Will I be hit by a bike before I graduate high school? → Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will I get a 1580+ on my SATs?
cece avatarpancakes
20% chance
Will I drop out of college before December
HarryFischer avatarHarry Fischer
22% chance
Will I drop out of college?
pranav avatarPranav
57% chance
will i drop out of college?
laura avatarLaura Gao
59% chance
Will I get a higher score than @cece on the SAT?
8 avatarTrong
50% chance
Will I do at least as well on 2024 mathcounts chapter as I did on 2023 mathcounts chapter
DeadRhino avatarhi
77% chance
Will I finish the new semester with all A?
Will I complete my economics Bachelor's degree at the University of Bonn in 3 years. [Ṁ1337 liquidity subsidy]
Conditional on not improving my LSAT score, will I get accepted into a T14 law school next year?
LawStudent4884 avatarDave
39% chance
Will I catch 5 (or more) students cheating on essays by using ChatGPT/AI by the end of the fall semester?
MadeleineLemos avatarMadeleine Lemos
68% chance
Will i get a grades?
KnsGamer avatarKns Gamer
57% chance
Will I major in math?
alleycat avataralleycat
13% chance
will i last more than 1 consecutive year at college?
laura avatarLaura Gao
65% chance
Will I get into MathCounts Nationals next year?
Physictype avatarPhysictype
18% chance
Will I receive a grade of 4 or higher in my current, ongoing university futurology course?
TUTU3 avatarTUTU3
52% chance
Will duck_master pass every class he takes this semester?
duck_master avatarduck_master
72% chance
Will I complete my degree with a weighted average mark of 70 or above
NGK avatarNick Kardis
75% chance
Will I get a 36 on my act
Will I reach DELE B1 level in Spanish?
SeitaY avatarSeita
70% chance
Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?
SeanG11 avatarSean
45% chance
Sort by:
cloe avatar
cloe

i'd give this a ~20% chance for the next year, so ~60% chance if i sustain my bike probabilities. maybe there's some data that people's bike chances get higher once they get older

ithildulin avatar
Ameliabought Ṁ10 of YES

if you keep going on manifold you certainly will

1 reply
zweezwee avatar
zoepredicts YES
zweezwee avatar
zoebought Ṁ10 of YES

this is manipulatable!

2 replies
ithildulin avatar
Ameliapredicts YES

@amzoeee brb, getting my bike

zweezwee avatar
zoepredicts YES

@ithildulin ascutvhdibjkaslasdadf,