Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
closes 2027

As far as I can remember, I've never been hit by a bike on an actual road, but I've come close on multiple occasions. I nearly got hit by a car last week because of Manifold. Apparently, I have a habit of beginning to cross streets before looking both ways. One semester (block), I earned a 6 (exceeding expectations) in both disposition and achievement for being so good at walking (the "class" was specifically walking).

To count as being "hit by a bike," I have to come in contact with a moving bike, the biker on the bike, or any of the bikers possessions (that can't flow in wind -- so something like paper or leaves won't count). And being intentionally hit by a bike or pushed into the bike lane doesn't count.

This'll resolve as soon as I get hit by a bike, and if I don't graduate high school, this will end when I would have (mid 2027). I won't trade on this market or increase my bike-hitting chances in any way (oops forgot about this for a sec). If someone hits me on a bike specifically to win this market, I'll resolve it in the opposite direction of their position (do not do this).

May 2, 5:42pm: Will I be hit by a bike before I graduate high school? → Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

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cloe avatar

i'd give this a ~20% chance for the next year, so ~60% chance if i sustain my bike probabilities. maybe there's some data that people's bike chances get higher once they get older

ithildulin avatar
Ameliabought Ṁ10 of YES

if you keep going on manifold you certainly will

1 reply
zweezwee avatar
zoepredicts YES
zweezwee avatar
zoebought Ṁ10 of YES

this is manipulatable!

2 replies
ithildulin avatar
Ameliapredicts YES

@amzoeee brb, getting my bike

zweezwee avatar
zoepredicts YES

@ithildulin ascutvhdibjkaslasdadf,