Will I see anyone other than myself wearing a helmet in a car before the end of 2025?
10
87
190
2025
12%
chance

I must see them in person. Race car drivers don't count. Nor does it count if they're wearing the helmet for some other reason and briefly entered a car. It must seem like they're wearing it primarily to reduce the risk of injury in a car accident in normal driving operations.

If they're wearing a helmet because I honestly convinced them it was a good idea, that counts. If they're doing it because I paid them or otherwise influenced their decision in some way that isn't "them thinking it's a good idea", that doesn't count.

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Is there some research suggesting that wearing a helmet significantly reduces relative risk of serious injury when driving a car?

I'm driving to EAG Boston and I wear a bike helmet while driving. If you see me there...

predicts NO

@NicholasKross Good to know there's at least one other person out there!

Would it resolve to YES if the person you saw wearing a helmet was someone you knew / convinced to put a helmet on, either for safety reasons or for the purpose of this market's resolution?

predicts NO

@TheBayesian Good question. If they're wearing a helmet because I honestly convinced them it was a good idea, that counts. If they're doing it because I paid them or otherwise influence their decision in some way that isn't "them thinking it's a good idea", that doesn't count.

Do you wear a helmet in a car regularly?

predicts NO

@ian Theoretically, yes. I haven't been great about it in the past, but I'm trying to get better now.

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