When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released? | Manifold

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

3

1kṀ1121

2028

10%

Q1/Q2 '25

23%

Q3/Q4 '25

24%

Q1/Q2 '26

18%

Q3/Q4 '26

14%

Q1/Q2 '27

7%

Q3/Q4 '27

5%

2028 or later

GPT next-token-prediction models led to the o-series reasoning models.

When will the next paradigm be released?

This is a fuzzy question, but it needs to be a significant advance, and is different in some way. For example, smarter models or larger context windows would not count. Multi-modal mostly doesn't count (e.g. it generates video or accepts audio).

You would need a breakthrough on the order of a near-infinite context window or an autonomous agent API.

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?

Related questions

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy