When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released? | Manifold

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

3

1kṀ1121

2028

10%

Q1/Q2 '25

23%

Q3/Q4 '25

24%

Q1/Q2 '26

18%

Q3/Q4 '26

14%

Q1/Q2 '27

7%

Q3/Q4 '27

5%

2028 or later

GPT next-token-prediction models led to the o-series reasoning models.

When will the next paradigm be released?

This is a fuzzy question, but it needs to be a significant advance, and is different in some way. For example, smarter models or larger context windows would not count. Multi-modal mostly doesn't count (e.g. it generates video or accepts audio).

You would need a breakthrough on the order of a near-infinite context window or an autonomous agent API.

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"Multi-modal mostly doesn't count"

I assume this means sufficient multi-modality could count? So, e.g. if a breakthrough allows all text/image/audio data training to improve across modalities (e.g. feed it more YTube videos and it's next-token prediction improves, though likely not as efficiently as training on more text data), would that be sufficient? Or if not, what would?

I don't know if this counts as "next paradigm" but I think the next big thing is going to be hallucination reduction

latent space reasoners, continuously updating models

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Related questions

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

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