How will loans be implemented on June 1st?
33
165
Ṁ3Kresolved Jun 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
92%
No loans
1.4%
$20 per market as before
0.4%
Larger (eg M$ 100) loans, only available on longer-term markets (eg 3+ months away from closing)
0.1%
Larger loans proportional to your current portfolio value (eg loan limit = 2% of portfolio)
0.6%
A button you have to click on to opt-in to the loan
1.1%
Loans only available to power users (eg a subscriber, or person with >10 bets made, or >14 days on the site, or through an obscure user setting)
0.1%
Loans scale with the market
0.4%
Same as before but with a higher default loan amount
2%
Some fraction of your bet in every market is paid up front & the rest is a loan. The farther the close date, the lower your up front payment is as a fraction of your bet.
1.9%
Amount of loan scales with the time of question resolution, maybe in increments.
0.0%
Option is only available when the user's balance is M$ 0
0.0%
Daily limit to how many questions you can receive loans for.
Manifold Markets recently removed per-market loans — a feature that let you bet up to M$ 20 in every market through a loan that you pay back when the market resolves.
Will we bring loans back by June 1st, and if so, how?
I will award partial credit to earlier answers that were close, and the most accurate answer.
Get Ṁ200 play money
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answered
Some fraction of your bet in every market is paid up front & the rest is a loan. The farther the close date, the lower your up front payment is as a fraction of your bet.
answered
Option is only available when the user's balance is M$ 0
The stated issue was the feature overwhelming new users. Limiting loans to users without any funds ensures new users don't see it until they have already gotten some experience, and makes the feature easy to comprehend because it tells a very simple story. "Oh, you ran out of money? Well you can borrow temporary funds in the meantime."
answered
Daily limit to how many questions you can receive loans for.
One of the perks of loans is they enable new users to keep making bets instead of investing M$ 1000 and forgetting about the site while they wait for 11:59:59 December 31, 2022. Limiting frequency would further promote users forming a Manifold habit rather than a engaging in a single Manifold binge. Same logic as daily Wordles or daily quests in free-to-play games.
(kind of a digression, I should start a market on whether we'll do a subscription plan)
What's nice about a subscription-based plan is that it reminds traders that our platform exists, and aligns us with continuing to deliver value to our traders (instead of eg encouraging a single large bet, losing all your money, and then churning).
But allowing people who want to buy info to do so (either market subsidy or api access or sth) also makes a lot of sense! It's a bit of a question of how to divide the "gains from trade" here; platform + question creator + trader generate positive externalities in the form of forecasts & enjoyment; how do we allocate those?
Would be ~weakly against monetization via subscription plan as opposed to other routes. Seems to me the route that makes the most sense is whoever wants the information paying, rather than the users of the platform. This seems both most incentive compatible and best from a user growth perspective.
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