Will Manifold start charging interest on loans before 2031?

Basic

Ṁ275

2030

13%

chance

ALL

By "loan", I mean any automated loans on existing positions, in the same spirit of the currently implemented mechanisms, as of June 2023.

This is a question about mechanisms, not about specific loans.

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We're heading into a situation where there will be big loans on the balance sheet but no new issuance.

reposted

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Clarified the proposition and created a second, more specific market to act as a hedge https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-manifold-start-charging-intere-3b601b656e31

(You can use that market if one of the sources of risk in your strategy is having to liquidate due to interests.)

Will Manifold start charging interest on outstanding loans before 2031?

50% chance. The goal of this market is to provide a hedge / quantify the risk that outstanding loans have to start paying interest; this will resolve to YES only if existing loans have to start paying out interest before 2031. If Manifold discontinues loans, introduces interests, or changes the loa…

What if they charge interest on an extra loan you take out of a bet beyond the normal loan amount, but no interest on normal loans?

@xyz can you clarify what you mean mechanically?

predicts NO

@xyz You mean if they introduce new kind of loans, with different mechanism, and they charge interest on those?

@jgyou IIRC you automatically get back 2% of your position every day as loans. So what if there was still no interest on those loans, but you were allowed to draw down another 10% of your position per day, but with interest. Does that count as starting to charge interest on loans?