Will the United States government abolish or substantially modify the student loan system before January 1, 2026?
Will the United States government abolish or substantially modify the student loan system before January 1, 2026?
3
100Ṁ802026
33%
chance
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1W
1M
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This market resolves YES if the U.S. government either abolishes federal student loans or implements substantial modifications to the federal student loan system before January 1, 2026. Substantial modifications would include any of the following:
Switching to a system where private lenders backed by government guarantees issue student loans
Consolidating all federal loan programs into a single program with income-driven repayment
Converting the Federal Student Aid office into a new government corporation
Switching to fair-value accounting from FCRA accounting
The market resolves NO if none of these changes occur by January 1, 2026.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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