Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates | Manifold

Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates

46

Ṁ1.2kṀ4.4k

2030

59%

Jan 1, 2027

55%

Jan 1, 2028

50%

Jan 1, 2029

40%

Jan 1, 2035

40%

Jan 1, 2030

31%

Jan 1, 2040

Resolved

YES

Jan 1, 2025

Resolved

YES

Jan 1, 2026

Resolved

YES

July 1, 2024

Resolved

YES

October 1, 2024

Using Wikipedia’s characterization of the government type to resolve: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba

For clarity, communist in this case means Marxist-Lennist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_socialist_states

Each year will resolve individually, so if the government changes form in 2026 and then stays the same from there on out, the both Jan 1, 2027 and the following years will resolve as NO.

Market context

Us-Cuba relations

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Cuba has not been a communist country for a very long time.

@MaybeNotDepends Say more? I think the resolution criteria has not been triggered…

reposted

Cuba update: https://apnews.com/article/cuba-economy-cash-shortage-1bb0c49c286495c66a94e32feffc042d

Related market for China: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-the-chinese-communist-party-st-bf421e67eba9

reposted

Some good arbitrage available here - Oct 1, 2024 trading significantly lower than July 1 2024 or Jan 1 2025

Added June 30, 2024 and Oct 1, 2024 just to give us something nearer term.

@jdilla Edited June 30 to July 1 prior to any bets coming in.

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