
Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
9
closes 2025
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ104 +942.0%
New probability
11% +3%
Scientific breakeven, Q = 1
Get Ṁ500 play money
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Bair Aiushinbought Ṁ20 of NO
It's not very likely that they will finish construction by 2025. And they will need at least a year after that to achieve Q=1. Less than 20% chance IMO.
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