Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ190Ṁ855

Dec 31

chance

ALL

Scientific breakeven, Q = 1

Market context

Nuclear

Fusion Energy

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

It's not very likely that they will finish construction by 2025. And they will need at least a year after that to achieve Q=1. Less than 20% chance IMO.

In 2021, the SPARC reactor was planned for completion in 2025 and with a Q = 11

People are also trading

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?

+7% 1d71% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?

+9% 1d59% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?

+7% 1d65% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?

+9% 1d62% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?

+5% 1d69% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?

74% chance

Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?

10% chance

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

87% chance

In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?

What will be the next fusion project to reach Q=1 scientific breakeven?

People are also trading

Related questions