Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
9
closes 2025
8%
chance

Scientific breakeven, Q = 1

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BairAiushin avatar
Bair Aiushinbought Ṁ20 of NO

It's not very likely that they will finish construction by 2025. And they will need at least a year after that to achieve Q=1. Less than 20% chance IMO.

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian

In 2021, the SPARC reactor was planned for completion in 2025 and with a Q = 11