Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
9
1kṀ10052026
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
8% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
60% chance
Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
70% chance
Will an AI be able to repeatedly write rap songs that I think are good without human input in the lyrics before 2025?
76% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
13% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
67% chance
A major poetry competition will explicitly ban AI-generated submissions before September 2025
90% chance
Will AI win a Pulitzer by 2030?
19% chance
Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2025
4% chance
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
2% chance