As reported by METR's point estimate, and using METR's cited date of release.

If an August announcement is made but not measured, I will wait until Dec 1 to resolve. If updates to the testing set are made, e.g. TH1.2, we will use the latest iteration's numbers. If METR reports 80% TH is 'likely greater than 10h' (or some threshold higher than 10h) but without a point estimate--as they did for Mythos 50% TH--this resolves yes. If METR ceases to report or regularly test frontier models I will N/A.

I may trade on this market.

• Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If an August announcement is made but not measured, the creator will wait until Dec 1 to resolve (correcting the typo in the description which stated 'September').