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MANIFOLD
Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026
10
Ṁ1kṀ2.5k
Sep 30
94%
≥4h
76%
≥6h
66%
≥8h
57%
≥10h
22%
≥12h
12%
≥14h
4%
≥16h
2%
≥18h

See https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Resolves to the longest 80% Time Horizon, as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of September 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early. The most recent suite of METR TH tasks will be used for resolution (whether v1.1, v2, v3, etc.).

IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds reached, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour 80% time horizon, "≥10h" resolves yes, but so does ≥6h and ≥8h

See also:

/Bayesian/best-metr-time-horizons-in-2026
/Bayesian/best-metr-80-time-horizon-before-au

/Bayesian/best-metr-80-time-horizon-before-oc

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