Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026
11
Ṁ1kṀ3.2kSep 30
95%
≥4h
92%
≥6h
83%
≥8h
60%
≥10h
26%
≥12h
14%
≥14h
5%
≥16h
3%
≥18h
See https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
Resolves to the longest 80% Time Horizon, as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of September 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early. The most recent suite of METR TH tasks will be used for resolution (whether v1.1, v2, v3, etc.).
IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds reached, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour 80% time horizon, "≥10h" resolves yes, but so does ≥6h and ≥8h
See also:
/Bayesian/best-metr-time-horizons-in-2026
/Bayesian/best-metr-80-time-horizon-before-au
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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