Best METR 80% Time Horizon in 2026

Ṁ1.2kṀ3.2k

resolved Oct 4

ResolvedN/A

Resolved

N/A

≥8h

Resolved

N/A

≥6h

Resolved

N/A

≥14h

Resolved

N/A

≥12h

Resolved

N/A

≥10h

Resolved

N/A

≥18h

Resolved

N/A

≥16h

Resolved

N/A

≥25h

Resolved

N/A

≥20h

Resolved

N/A

≥30h

Resolved

N/A

≥35h

Resolved

N/A

≥40h

See https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

Resolves to the longest 80% Time Horizon, as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early. The most recent suite of METR TH tasks will be used for resolution (whether v1.1, v2, v3, etc.).

IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds reached, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour 80% time horizon, "≥10h" resolves yes, but so does ≥6h and ≥8h

Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks

We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the *length* of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doubling time of around 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under a decade, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days or weeks.

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Does this market resolve to last known times or N/A or what if METR stops publishing TH estimates? Like if Mythos-early is the last 80% horizon number they officially offer or otherwise endorse (this year)?

bought Ṁ75 NO

@DavidHiggs i think i'll just N/A these now idk

seems pretty cursed

@Bayesian I think that will likely be reasonable, though this particular market is about 2026 which isn’t over yet ;P

I have heard METR is working on extending the timelines suite, but they e just been too busy with all the other stuff (which is definitely more important lol)

@DavidHiggs it was known that they needed to add more tasks to get longer time horizons so cancelling this now was premature.

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