Sales includes non-refundable, full-price preorders (if offered).
At $3500 each, 150k unit sales would generate a little over half a billion dollars of revenue.
@HenriThunberg good point, and thanks for the reminder -- ideally I'd like to go with the same resolution criteria that the other Vision Pro markets plan to use (ie the ones by yourself, Ian Phillips, and others). If we don't get official word from Apple, should we just go with whatever Min-Chi Kuo says?? Should we wait for some credible balance of reporting, or for the rumored reports to exceed the threshold by some margin? Will we someday be able to get accurate (or at least closer) numbers based on investors analyzing some Apple quarterly financial report?
@JacksonWagner I think this might have to resolve. Several quarterly reports have come out and there are still not any official figures.
News items are only debating whether 3-4-or-500k units will be sold in 2024, while they seem to agree that it's more than 200k.
I will wait at least until the end of this quarter, and maybe through 2024, just since it doesn't seem right to resolve a 2024 market only halfway through the year on uncertain info. But yeah, if I had to go on the balance of reporting available now (which is mostly about sales expectations for the year, not numbers concretely sold so far??), I would likely resolve YES.
@Undox at $3,500 per unit this market is asking for 525,000,000 in sales for a product that dosnt have a launch date yet.
Related markets / potential arbitrage opportunities:
150K headsets sold in 2024: https://manifold.markets/JacksonWagner/will-apple-sell-more-than-150k-visi
285K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-fee5899b9ba1
50th percentile estimate, currently 320K: https://manifold.markets/whalelang/how-many-units-will-apples-vision-p ...markets with thresholds below this 50th percentile estimate (150K and 285K) should IMO be above 50%; markets with higher thresholds (500K+) should be lower than 50%, or else this market (currently 320K) should move a lot.
500K: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h
575K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea
750k: https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-750k-mr-h
850K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-ecd06df8baab
1400K: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vision-pro-and-other-apple-hea-6ba0eda02079