If humanity gets wiped out by 2033, will it be because of AI?

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Ṁ1181

2033

51%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if humanity gets wiped out due to AI before 2033. Resolves no if humanity is wiped out by some other cause before 2033. Wiped out is defined as <1000 humans on planet earth. Resolves N/A if humanity isn't wiped out before 2033.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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This leads naturally to more markets— how many of the <1000 remaining humans will still have access to Manifold to resolve market and make or lose mana? And time and bandwidth to care? Or will AIs be having all the fun and profits?

predicts NO

People are seriously undervaluing the potential of a random skirmish between countries leading to nukes without AI intervention

bought Ṁ50 NO from 54% to 51%

how to define that AI was responsible?

@StanisawKokocinski If actions directly taken by the ai cause the conditions for wiping out

@Jack_Rose so AI shooting first nuke which will result in non-AI atomic answer and annihilation counts as NO?

@StanisawKokocinski Resolves yes because has causal connection

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