On December 20, 2024, OpenAI reported that their o3 reasoning model scored 25.2% on EpochAI's Frontier Math benchmark. For context, AI models like GPT-4 and Gemini score around 2%. Will a Chinese-made AI model surpass that score in 2025?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• A Chinese company, university, or government entity reports an AI model (e.g. DeepSeek or Qwen) scoring higher than 25.2% on the Frontier Math in 2025

• The score is publicly announced and independently verified by EpochAI

The market will resolve NO if:

• No Chinese-developed AI model surpasses 25.2% on Frontier Math in 2025

• It eventually comes out that a Chinese model created in 2025 surpasses 25.2% on Frontier Math, but this wasn't widely known as of the end of 2025

Other Notes

• This market is based on o3's December score of 25.2%. If o3 later surpasses that (for instance, by re-running with more inference compute), the new score won't supersede this one

• If there's any uncertainty as to whether a model is "Chinese-made," I'll add clarifications as I see fit. Generally, I'll consider any model whose development was primarily conducted by a Chinese entity to be "Chinese-made"

• Models may use any architecture and any amount of compute. I'm also including models that are specifically designed for math or research, not just general LLMs

• If Frontier Math changes their benchmark (for instance, by adding a fourth tier of problems), I'll use my best judgement for doing an apples-to-apples comparison. If it doesn't seem possible to fairly compare results, I'll resolve the market at the current price

• The model doesn't need to be publicly available, but the score needs to be publicly announced + verified