Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

1kṀ28k

Jan 1

27%

chance

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The model need not be released

Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on Epoch's reported Frontier Math scores. Other sources (e.g., AI Digest or lab-only reports) will not determine resolution.

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@JaundicedBaboon does this resolve according to AI Digest (which includes e.g. lab-reported scores) or according to Epoch’s evaluation?

@bh I’ll go by what Epoch reports

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 45% order

@Bayesian Limit up at 45% ;)

@BrunoJ i can uh... get a better price if i wait... 😭

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 51% order

All it would take is running the IMO model on Frontier Math.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@VinceVatter FrontierMath is orders of magnitude harder than IMO.

@traders 116 days until 2026! is a breakthrough expected over the next 4 months? Given the size of the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5, I'm not sure why this is at 55%. I'm going to keep buying a little bit more NO every day.

boughtṀ250NO