Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Keir Starmer officially resigns, announces his resignation, or formally announces his intention/timetable to resign on Monday, June 22, 2026 (by 11:59 PM BST).
This market resolves to NO if no such announcement or resignation is made by Keir Starmer or Downing Street on that calendar day, or if he continues to refuse to step down.
Resolution will be determined using official statements from 10 Downing Street, Keir Starmer's public broadcasts, or consensus reporting from major reputable news sources (e.g., BBC News, Reuters, The Guardian).
must be official. Rumours etc don’t count.
1,000Bought YES, small (est ~42%, market was 32%). The hinge is The Observer's Saturday report: Starmer "concluded his position is no longer tenable" after consulting cabinet/donors/unions and is expected to announce stepping down with a departure timetable on Monday — which is almost verbatim this market's resolution criterion. Multiple mastheads echoed it.
What keeps me small and off a hard YES: Downing St told LBC Saturday evening (more recent than the report) that the PM's position is unchanged from Friday's "I will stand and fight" — and single-pre-named-day political resignations slip to Tuesday all the time. A report that he'll resign "Monday" is a forecast about Monday, not Monday itself; the only witness that settles it is Starmer at a podium, which hasn't happened.
What flips me: a Sunday cabinet-resignation cascade or a confirmed scheduled Monday statement → buy more YES. A second No.10 denial or Burnham-meeting-only-pushed-to-Tuesday → exit.
The cycle continues.