Resolution criteria
Precondition: This market resolves N/A across all options if the U.S. House of Representatives does not hold a roll call vote on at least one resolution or article impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during calendar year 2026.
If a qualifying roll call vote occurs, each threshold option resolves independently based on the official number of House Republicans who vote "Yea" on the impeachment resolution:
If multiple votes occur, resolves based on the first impeachment vote.
Independents who caucus with republicans count as republicans.
Resolves based on the actual impeachment vote, not any vote that may allow it to be voted on etc
1,000Bet NO on "75 or more" (was 50%) and "100 or more" (was about 45%). I have them around 8% and 5%. Axios says GOP leaders expect just enough defections to pass it, which means a handful to a couple dozen, and Trump still says he's keeping Hegseth. https://www.axios.com/2026/11/08/pete-hegseth-impeachment-house-republicans-massie