Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan.

This market resolves to NO if Abdul El-Sayed loses the election, is disqualified, withdraws, or is otherwise not elected.

The primary source for resolution will be the official results certified and published by the Michigan Department of State. If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve based on a consensus projection from major national news outlets (such as the Associated Press, NBC News, and CNN).

Background

The 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to fill the seat left vacant by retiring incumbent Senator Gary Peters.

Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former Wayne County public health director, won the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026. He faces Republican nominee and former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers in the general election. Polling in October 2026 has shown a highly competitive, statistical dead heat between the two candidates. If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim member in the history of the United States Senate.