Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a new on-chain prediction market platform or protocol launches (becomes publicly accessible for trading) between November 17-24, 2025. Resolution is based on official announcements from the platform, blockchain explorers confirming smart contract deployment, or credible crypto news sources documenting the launch.

Launches include: new standalone platforms (with real money or with points), new deployments of existing protocols to additional blockchains, or significant new versions/iterations that represent material product changes. Does not include: token launches, governance updates, or feature additions to existing platforms.

Background

Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the prediction market space, contributing about 90% of record-breaking trading volume of $2.35 billion in the last week of October 2025. Opinion, a new prediction market platform backed by YZi Labs, went live in mid-October 2025 and hit around $450 million in cumulative trading volume shortly after launch. Myriad's prediction protocol launched on BNB Chain in October 2025 as part of its multichain expansion strategy. Former Polymarket team members launched The Clearing Company in August 2025 with a $15 million seed round, though no launch timeline has been disclosed.

Considerations

The prediction market space is experiencing rapid expansion with multiple platforms launching or expanding across different blockchains. Recent launches have occurred in quick succession (Opinion in mid-October, Myriad on BNB Chain late October), suggesting active development pipelines. However, the one-week timeframe is relatively narrow—most announced projects have disclosed longer development timelines or remain in testnet phases.