Background

The original document for Project 2025 proposes bills to restrict or ban LGBTQ content by classifying it on the same level as sex crimes. The originally proposed version of KOSA proposed allowing state attorneys general to restrict content they deem "harmful to minors," with plenty of wiggle room for what "harmful" means. The Trump administration has, through a litany of executive orders, internal memos, and other messaging, made it abundantly clear that it is going to be extremely anti-transgender, with little regard for constitutionality. There is fear that there will be attempts to remove or restrict LGBTQ content on a wider level, now that republicans hold all three federal branches, and a number more state houses. Will they censor LGBTQ+ content online this year?

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves yes if any governmental action or attempted governmental action at the state, federal, judicial, presidential, or some other potental level results in LGBTQ content OR entire websites being systematically removed or otherwise restricted for adults or minors on online platforms by midnight (ET) on December 31, 2025. The method by which this happens is not important to a YES resolution. It could happen could be through federal legislation (similar to KOSA), effective state legislation, an executive order, or by some other method, as long as a government in the United States is involved.

This will resolve yes if there are reports from reputable news sources detailing sites "going dark," taking down LGBTQ content, performing age verification to access LGBTQ content, or in any other way restricting, blocking, or gating content related to LGBTQ people, either due to enforcement or preemptive fear. Whether or not the bill intends to do this does not matter. Whether or not the bill is immediately struck down before being enforced does not matter. Whether or not the bill actually passes before a site begins doing this does not matter. "Online platform" includes, but is not limited to, the following:

• Ao3, Lithub, and other literature-hosting platforms

• Deviantart, Furaffinity, Flickr, and other image-hosting platforms

• Bandcamp, Podbean, and other audio-hosting platforms

• Vimeo, Dailymotion, and other video-hosting platforms

• Bluesky, Mastodon, and other social media platforms

• Wikia, TVTropes, and other encyclopedic platforms

I have intentionally chosen smaller sites to emphasize that the size of the platform does not matter, so long as it has been caused at any governmental level in the United States and there is sufficient evidence that it was a result of the aforementioned actions or attempted actions. This will be through any journalistic source deemed "good enough" by me, a moderator (if i am unavailable), or general sentiment (if a majority of people disagree with either of the two). Due to the subjectivity of this market, I will not bet in it.

This market has to do with government action. An individual platform deciding to ban LGBT content without any previous attempt at government interference (For example, Musk deciding to put harsh restrictions on LGBT content on Twitter), despite being an obvious censoring of LGBT content, would not qualify for a YES resolution.

Summary of Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve YES if before January 1, 2026, there is sufficient evidence indicating that ANY state, federal, executive, judicial, or other US governmental action has been proposed, enacted, or otherwise proceeded upon that has resulted in the systematic removal, restriction, gating, or other censorship of LGBTQ content from online platforms in the US, for adults OR minors, even temporarily. I will not bet in this market.

• Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:

  • Systematic removal or restriction of specific subsets of LGBTQ content, such as guides on obtaining non-prescription HRT, qualifies for a "YES" resolution, even if more general LGBTQ content remains unaffected, so long as it is in response to government action.