This is a companion market to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o, in order to control for the chance that trans ideology was going to drop off in popularity regardless of any changes on Twitter.
If Elon Musk buys Twitter and changes its de facto content moderation policies to be less restrictive on criticism of the trans movement, this market resolves N/A.
Otherwise, this market resolves based on my entirely subjective judgement of whether, at the beginning of 2028, the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes. I'll consult the community before resolving, in case other people have had different experiences from me.
How would this resolve if trans movement achieves most of its goals and so becomes less relevant relative to other causes? (not that I think it is likely by 2028, but still)
That would count as a NO. For example, if acceptance of trans people becomes as ubiquitous as acceptance of gay people and no one argues about it anymore, that's trans ideology becoming more popular, not less.
@IsaacKing What are some examples of past movements which had lost significant ground relative to other causes?
I don’t think so, I’d expect rates of transition to continue to increase in the near term future. Plus, ridiculous as it is, the current gender ideology is currently helping trans people get what they want, so it’s not going to go away until someone figures out something more reasonable which accomplishes the same objectives.